Don’t crown Miami Heat just yet

By Nader Ihmoud

LeBron James needs just one championship to complete his legacy. He needs seven to back up the guarantee he made after signing with the Miami Heat. James will be lucky to walk away with one.

Insert the Heat into the best possible scenario come playoffs and the result will be the same as the previous year: The “Big Three” are yet again without a title.

Before the NBA regular season began, ESPN allowed their “experts” to predict the 2011 – 2012 NBA champion; 25 of the 30 crowned the Miami Heat.  The phrase “don’t judge a book by its cover” comes to mind.

The Heat began the season winning eight of their first nine games, but since then the team has lost three of four. Two came in overtime, when yet again the most coveted player in the 2010 NBA free agency failed to deliver for his team.

On paper, this team is the best in the league. James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh have averaged at least 20 points and five rebounds per game in their respective careers, but this does not transfer when they play together. Wade and James do not complement each other. They both need the ball in their hands at the end of game to be successful.

The fact is Wade has missed four of 13 games. The Heat is 4-0 without him. James began the game against the San Antonio Spurs on Jan. 17 missing his first four shots. In turn, the South Beach faithful booed. James exploded in the second half, scoring 17 of his 33 points on 7-10 shooting.  Wade did not play and the Heat won. Big surprise.

It is hard to argue against James. He is the greatest physical talent to ever come into the NBA, but his greatness is questioned because he lacks execution.

He has made it to the NBA Finals twice in his career: once as a Cleveland Cavalier and once as a member of the Heat. For some reason, today’s greatest basketball player becomes the greatest magician in NBA history on the biggest stage of his career.  He doesn’t do much come the fourth quarter and overtime.

The greatest act he put on came last June against the Dallas Mavericks, when Dirk Nowitzki of the Mavericks showed James up and carried his team to the franchise’s first NBA title. James failed to carry through and watched another team celebrate a championship­–again.

James has shown glimpses of his great magic show this season. The Heat went on a stretch of three straight losses from Jan. 10–13. In those games, James averaged fewer than seven points in the fourth quarter and overtime combined.

Two of the three games ended in overtime, and in those overtime periods James scored a total of two points. He did not score at all in the overtime loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Jan. 11 and did not even have a field goal attempt in the fourth quarter in the loss to the Golden State Warriors on Jan. 10.

When the “Big Three” was first established, everyone – including myself – assumed the NBA would turn into a video game franchise takeover. After watching them play these past two seasons,  I am not convinced this group of men can overcome the hurdles of the Chicago Bulls or the Oklahoma City Thunder.

James and company will not be able to beat those teams come postseason play until LeBron and Wade learn to co-exist. Prior to joining forces, the two were used to every possession going through them. Now that they are together, the isolation plays need to disappear. Hint, hint, LeBron. Put James or Wade at the point and make the other play off the ball. Either way, you cannot go wrong. With Bosh down in the low post and the team playing as a cohesive unit, this is the most dangerous team in the NBA.

That being said, it will not happen, or at least not on a consistent basis. The Bulls defense will rattle them in the Eastern Conference finals and James’ ego will come into play as he loses the series for his team.

From there it will be the Bulls and Thunder duking it out in June while James sits at home with his teammates and a year’s supply of tissues.